Invest for the Recovery Under Obama
Whether you are an Obama fan or an Obama opponent, since he has become our newest President of the United States his policies will have an affect on the financial markets, both domestically and internationally. He wants to bring change to the United States which by extension means world markets because we have such a huge economic foot print.
So, what do you need to think about with an Obama Presidency regarding how you structure your investment portfolios " both taxable and 401(k)/IRA, etc.?
1. Taxes will matter: We still don't have the details of how the tax code will be changed, but indications have been that at least some of the population (which targets the investing population) will see an increase in taxes on dividends and capital gains. If, for example, you pay a 20% or 25% rate of tax on capital gains instead of a 15% (or less), it is clear that there will be less money to reinvest or to live on after taxes are paid. Dividend rated could go up as high as 35% which will really kill the benefit of dividend paying stocks and bonds. So, you may want to consider the incorporation of tax free municipal bonds (but then with municipalities gong broke, be sure you look before your leap). Discuss tax management with your Advisor on the rest of your portfolio. Tax managed passive mutual funds have an extremely low tax impact.
2. Capital Markets Work: There will be those gurus who will tell you they know which sectors or industries will boom under Obama and which will tank. Academic studies have shown over and over again that such attempts to combine stock picking with a market timing element almost never outperform the broad market (in fact they generally under perform) and when they do it is usually nothing more than luck and is thus not repeatable. Markets are essentially efficient and any attempt to regulate trade or change tax policy will end up being priced into the securities as soon as the information hits the wires.
3. Diversification is Key: The way to consistently win under an Obama Presidency is to hold very broadly diversified, global, low cost, asset class mutual funds. Diversification reduces uncertainty. If you hold a mutual fund of US securities with about 3500 stocks in it and one of them happens to be a Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers, it will hardly make a blip in your portfolio as it goes out of existence. Dont be caught with concentrated position mutual funds or with individual securities. You will be carrying too much risk that you can diversify your way out of.
4. Risk level and Return level are inseparable: Over longer time periods, stocks outperform bonds, but not in all time periods. Over longer time periods, bonds outperform cash, but not in all time periods. It is also true that small stocks, over time, outperform large stocks, but not in all time periods - and over time Value stocks outperform Growth stocks, but not in all time periods. To obtain the higher long term returns one must accept the higher risk of higher performing asset classes.
5. Portfolio Structure Determines Performance: Investing your portfolio along size, value and market exposure dimensions is primarily what determines the results of a diversified investment portfolio. To increase the expected results of your portfolio, own low cost, globally diversified asset class mutual funds that are over-weighted to small and more value oriented stocks. If a 100% stock portfolio is too risky for you, add some high quality short term bonds to it to reduce the volatility - of course, it will also reduce your expected return.
In order to win the loser's game, follow academically sound investment principles will allow you to win during an Obama Presidency. Don't give in to the Wall Street marketing gurus who have proven just how effective they are at separating you from your money, quickly and permanently. Can anybody say, Bernie Madoff?
So, what do you need to think about with an Obama Presidency regarding how you structure your investment portfolios " both taxable and 401(k)/IRA, etc.?
1. Taxes will matter: We still don't have the details of how the tax code will be changed, but indications have been that at least some of the population (which targets the investing population) will see an increase in taxes on dividends and capital gains. If, for example, you pay a 20% or 25% rate of tax on capital gains instead of a 15% (or less), it is clear that there will be less money to reinvest or to live on after taxes are paid. Dividend rated could go up as high as 35% which will really kill the benefit of dividend paying stocks and bonds. So, you may want to consider the incorporation of tax free municipal bonds (but then with municipalities gong broke, be sure you look before your leap). Discuss tax management with your Advisor on the rest of your portfolio. Tax managed passive mutual funds have an extremely low tax impact.
2. Capital Markets Work: There will be those gurus who will tell you they know which sectors or industries will boom under Obama and which will tank. Academic studies have shown over and over again that such attempts to combine stock picking with a market timing element almost never outperform the broad market (in fact they generally under perform) and when they do it is usually nothing more than luck and is thus not repeatable. Markets are essentially efficient and any attempt to regulate trade or change tax policy will end up being priced into the securities as soon as the information hits the wires.
3. Diversification is Key: The way to consistently win under an Obama Presidency is to hold very broadly diversified, global, low cost, asset class mutual funds. Diversification reduces uncertainty. If you hold a mutual fund of US securities with about 3500 stocks in it and one of them happens to be a Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers, it will hardly make a blip in your portfolio as it goes out of existence. Dont be caught with concentrated position mutual funds or with individual securities. You will be carrying too much risk that you can diversify your way out of.
4. Risk level and Return level are inseparable: Over longer time periods, stocks outperform bonds, but not in all time periods. Over longer time periods, bonds outperform cash, but not in all time periods. It is also true that small stocks, over time, outperform large stocks, but not in all time periods - and over time Value stocks outperform Growth stocks, but not in all time periods. To obtain the higher long term returns one must accept the higher risk of higher performing asset classes.
5. Portfolio Structure Determines Performance: Investing your portfolio along size, value and market exposure dimensions is primarily what determines the results of a diversified investment portfolio. To increase the expected results of your portfolio, own low cost, globally diversified asset class mutual funds that are over-weighted to small and more value oriented stocks. If a 100% stock portfolio is too risky for you, add some high quality short term bonds to it to reduce the volatility - of course, it will also reduce your expected return.
In order to win the loser's game, follow academically sound investment principles will allow you to win during an Obama Presidency. Don't give in to the Wall Street marketing gurus who have proven just how effective they are at separating you from your money, quickly and permanently. Can anybody say, Bernie Madoff?
About the Author:
Be sure to get your free copy of a Special Report by Charles L. Stanley CFP ChFC AIF titled "How to Protect Yourself from being Madoff'd". This report contains simple techniques for how to protect yourself from crooks like Bernie Madoff, the Wall street broker who allegedly stole from his clients for $50 Billion. You don't have to let it happen to you. You will also find other articles at CharlesLStanley.com.
posted by Credit Counseling at
9:08 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home